Mark Collins – What Canadian “Ripple Effect” in Fight vs ISIS?

If Canada is not part of the “core” group working out military policy against the Caliphate then whatever we choose to do ourselves (and it will not be that significant and will be little noticed abroad) will have little impact regarding how matters evolve overall in the region:

Liberals cautious of ‘ripples’ across Mideast from Canada’s actions in Iraq and Syria: defence minister

Good grief but our pretensions of international centrality–“Canadian leadership” anyone?–are cringe-makingly embarrassing.

Related:

Back to Libya’s Shifting Sands: Western Action vs ISIS?

Quasi-Pacifist? Justin Trudeau vs the Jihadis: All You Need is Love, Part 2

Mark Collins, a prolific Ottawa blogger, is a Fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute; he tweets @Mark3Ds

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15 thoughts on “Mark Collins – What Canadian “Ripple Effect” in Fight vs ISIS?”

  1. I wonder if there is a ‘ripple threshold’ below which it is negligible? Would be fairly high threshold given contribution level.

  2. More on ISIS/Libya and Brits, Italians, others:

    ‘ Philip Hammond rules out sending British combat troops to Libya

    At an anti-Isis conference in Rome, foreign secretary says UK could provide support in other ways, such as organisation and air-gathered intelligence

    The British foreign secretary, Philip Hammond, has ruled out sending combat troops to Libya to tackle the spread of Islamic State.

    Speaking at a one-day meeting to discuss anti-Isis strategy in Rome on Tuesday, Hammond said the UK could provide support in other ways, primarily by providing intelligence gathered from the air, offering advice and helping with military organisation.

    “We will certainly want to support the new Libyan government in any practical way we can but I don’t envisage that there will be a situation where we need or want to put combat troop boots on the ground,” he said.

    “I don’t think we are likely to think that putting combat troops on the ground is a helpful contribution. There are plenty of armed men in Libya. What they need is organisation, command and control, air-gathered intelligence, strategic organisation.”

    The Italian government is taking the lead in drawing up a plan to support a new Libyan government and 23 countries took part in the Rome meeting.

    One option is to send a 6,000-strong Italian-led force to help with training and organisation of a new Libyan army. Rome has asked the UK to provide up to 1,000 troops, though only in a training and advisory role.

    But discussions are still at an early stage and such an intervention is only one of more than a dozen options under consideration. The UK has sent a small team to Libya to examine the feasibility of deploying such a force…’
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/02/philip-hammond-rules-out-sending-british-combat-troops-libya

    Mark Collins

  3. Oh, oh!

    ‘Carter Again Slams Anti-ISIS Partners on Lack of Assistance

    US Secretary of Defense Ash Carter called out members of “our so-called coalition” Tuesday for not doing more to fight the Islamic State group, commonly known as ISIL or ISIS.

    Carter’s comments, made at a public forum in Washington, appeared to set the tone for his trip to Belgium next week for a major gathering of the anti-ISIS coalition leadership [Cdn MND Sajjan will be there]…

    On Tuesday [Feb. 2], Carter acknowledged that some partners are participating, calling out the British and Australian forces in particular, but indicated frustration with the lack of support from other nations…’
    http://www.defensenews.com/story/war-in-syria/2016/02/02/carter-slams-isis-coaltion-isil-syria-iraq-fight/79698804/

    Mark Collins

  4. You won’t see it in any Western press but this is huge. If you look at the map in the link the small gap up near the top is the last northern link to Turkey from Aleppo. By the morning that gap will be closed. The only other way for Daesh, AQ or other groups to get weopons/people in and out through Turkey is via the Turkmen mountains that is crawling with SAA/Russians. This is a game changer.

    http://southfront.org/map-the-battle-for-aleppo-the-mother-of-all-battles/#st_refDomain=t.co&st_refQuery=/2Fx93YvnNY

    1. A friend with extensive experience and knowledge of the region notes:

      “The Iranians know whereof they speak. They and their surrogates have met ISIS; a number of senior Pasdaran officers have paid the supreme price as a result. Meanwhile the Saudi ground forces can’t even drive the Houthis back out of artillery range from Najran!

      Where is General Soleimani by the way, he seems to have dropped off the radar (or in Shi’ite-speak has gone into occlusion). Is he in disfavour for too much publicity seeking, or is he quietly planning some nasty surprise for those on the south shore of the Persian Gulf?

      There are also rumours going around that Solly may have been injured, perhaps in the vicinity of Allepograd or in the rescue of the Soviet pilot the Turks shot down–which if true proves the point: the Iranians know that fighting ISIS on the ground is not for amateurs led by a greenhorn princeling!”

      Rumours:
      http://www.ncr-iran.org/en/ncri-statements/terrorism-fundamentalism/19558-iran-qods-force-s-qassem-soleimani-severely-injured-in-syria

      More on Gen. Soleimani:
      https://cgai3ds.wordpress.com/?s=soleimani

      Mark Collins

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