Mark Collins – Syria, Civil War, ISIS: Ripples vs Tsunamis

Further to this post,

What Canadian “Ripple Effect” in Fight vs ISIS?

any small waves we may cause–we do takes ourselves so silly seriously–will seem as nothing compared to other developments, possible and actual:

Iranian commander mocks Saudi offer to intervene in Syria [with video]

Any foreign troops sent to Syria will return ‘in coffins’, says Damascus

UAE says ready to send ground troops to Syria

Turkey delivers aid across border as Syrian forces step up Aleppo assault [with Russian help]

One would rather have the Emiratis on one’s side than the Saudis; though one wonders how serious either’s intent is–and whether they would end up fighting Assad’s forces (their real target, what with the Iranian support) rather than ISIS.   Then throw in the Russians and Turks and one might have to start thinking of tsunamis rather than ripples.  The Western coalition members may be getting into truly ugly pickles.

Background:

Sunni Arab Boots on the Ground vs ISIS: How?

Mark Collins, a prolific Ottawa blogger, is a Fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute; he tweets @Mark3Ds

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7 thoughts on “Mark Collins – Syria, Civil War, ISIS: Ripples vs Tsunamis”

  1. One doesn’t imagine the new Canadian government’s “new approach” vs ISIS and in the region will cause many serious ripples” on the ground–excerpt (“Regional Capacity Building” in Lebanon, Jordan at end looks esp. vague):

    “Canada’s new approach to addressing the ongoing crises in Iraq and Syria and impacts on the region: promoting security and stability

    Military efforts

    Military efforts will continue to play an important role in setting the conditions necessary to deal with the threat posed by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Subject to further discussions with the Government of Iraq and Coalition partners, Canada will extend its military engagement in Iraq and Syria under Operation IMPACT until March 31, 2017, and make the following contributions under its new approach:

    increase its complement of military personnel to approximately 830, up from approximately 650.
    Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) personnel will be deployed at various Global Coalition headquarters to further support Coalition members and Iraqi security forces in the planning and execution of military operations. More specifically they will provide high-demand expertise in the areas of operational planning, targeting and intelligence.
    triple the size of its train, advise and assist mission to help Iraqi security forces plan and conduct military operations against ISIL. As part of this mission we will also:

    deploy CAF medical personnel to provide training to Iraqi security forces in the conduct of casualty management in a battlefield context as well as to provide medical support to CAF personnel and our partners;
    provide equipment such as small arms, ammunition and optics to assist in the training of Iraqi security forces. The provision of such equipment will be carried out in accordance with Canadian and international law, including the Law of Armed Conflict; and,
    examine ways to enhance in-theatre tactical transport.

    Air Contribution: maintain the current air contribution of one CC-150 Polaris aerial refuelling aircraft and up to two CP-140 Aurora aerial surveillance aircraft, along with associated aircrew and support personnel. These aircraft will continue to conduct operations throughout the Coalition theatre. As directed, the CAF will cease air strike operations in Iraq and Syria no later than February 22, 2016. As a result, the six CF-188 Hornets, along with associated aircrew and support personnel will be redeployed in a phased approach.

    Regional Capacity Building: subject to further discussion with regional partners, Canada will enhance its capacity-building efforts with security forces in Jordan and Lebanon to help prevent the spread of violent extremism. Canada is also offering to provide the Government of Iraq with a team of strategic advisors to the Ministries of Defence and the Interior…”
    http://pm.gc.ca/eng/news/2016/02/08/canadas-new-approach-addressing-ongoing-crises-iraq-and-syria-and-impacts-region

    Prime Minister Trudeau when asked at presser Feb. 8 would not give straight answer as to whether Canadian advisers with Peshmerga would continue, as part of “advise and assist” mission, come near front lines and also paint targets for coalition airstrikes–but see tweets below:

    Chief of Defence Staff later on Lebanon, Jordan–troops to do what?

    CDS also says CF will continue to paint targets:

    Plus CF may get involved in firefights:

    And total size of new CF mission–trainers with Peshmerga to be tripled:

    Mark Collins

  2. In the interests of fairness one should point out that the Canadian Forces’ 2011-14 Afghanistan training mission (mainly in Kabul) involved no accompanying of Afghan forces “outside the wire” or near combat:

    “Canadian Forces’ Trainers in Iraq, or, Afghanistan and Fact-Challenged Canadian Media, Part 2”
    https://cgai3ds.wordpress.com/2015/03/12/mark-collins-canadian-forces-trainers-in-iraq-or-afghanistan-and-fact-challenged-canadian-media-part-2/

    Mark Collins

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