Mark Collins – Iraq: Upcoming Battle for Mosul Update

Further to this post, things could get exceedingly nasty; can Iraq stay united (and how far will the Turks go, both around Mosul and to prevent any independent Kurdistan?). At Defense One’sD-Brief“:


Iraq’s counterterrorism police of the Golden Division have reportedly departed Camp Speicher en route to positions near Mosul.
Reminder: the upcoming offensive could become a big mess, the Washington Post’s Loveday Morris warned on Wednesday [Oct. 12], reporting from Baghdad.

For a sense of just how messy it could get, here’s a broad glance at the Mosul manifest: Iraq Army; CT police; PKK; Turkey-backed tribes; Shia militia [Iran-backed]; Assyrian, Christian and Yazidi militia; and, of course, the U.S.-led coalition. That makes seven generic categories of different forces, most of which can be further broken down into more specific elements. More here.

The humanitarian toll of the offensive is going to be enormous, and could include: use of civilians as human shields, chemical weapons use, and the mass exodus of hundreds of thousands of people, the UN warns.

How’s the UN prepared for all that so far? In a word: inadequately. “In order to house and support and accommodate 1 million people at dignified standards we would be looking at an operation of $1 billion,” said Lise Grande, the U.N. Humanitarian Coordinator for Iraq [UN website here].

Reuters: “That is more than four times the $230 million the international body has received so far for the effort, funds which have only recently arrived. So far, a total of six camps have been built that can accommodate 50,000 people. Efforts are underway to construct 11 more, said Grande.”..

Lots more at MILNET.ca, scroll down to “Iraq”. And what role will the Canadian Forces’ closely assisting the Kurdish Peshmerga have in how Kurdistan matters play out? Our government should be giving that furious consideration.

Mark Collins, a prolific Ottawa blogger, is a Fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute; he tweets @Mark3Ds

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4 thoughts on “Mark Collins – Iraq: Upcoming Battle for Mosul Update”

  1. Oct. 16 at MILNEWS.ca (further links at original):

    ‘…
    Mo’ on Mosul “ISIS rigs Mosul with bombs, blocks roads and militants on 24hr vigil” – “Amid countdown for battle ISIS sets ablaze oil-filled trenches around Mosul” – “US military ‘begins shelling’ ISIL in Iraq’s Mosul” – “Teachers, employees continue demonstrations as Mosul battle approaches” – “In Erbil some welcome Mosul offensive, others fear uncertainty” – “50,000 Peshmerga Troops Ready to Attack IS in Mosul” – “Barzani: It’s Time to Liberate Mosul”
    TUR-IRQ Friction Continues “Iraqi PM lashes out at Turkish president Erdogan” – “Turkish President: Iraq Cannot Deal Alone with IS in Mosul”…’
    https://milnewsca.wordpress.com/2016/10/16/canvsisil-161155utc/

    Mark Collins

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